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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

Yet the latest race is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and longtime also-rans rising collectively. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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