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Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help speed up the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the top if his government managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.